Investigating Wallets for Copy-Trading - vect

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Copy trading is highly dependent on selecting the right wallets. While strategies vary, I focus on metrics like win rate, trade frequency, and holding patterns to find traders worth copying. This guide outlines my approach, including tools I use and specific factors to consider. Keep in mind, what works for me might not work for everyone, but this strategy has helped me find an edge in the competitive world of trading.

Step 1: Understand the Role of Win Rate (WR)

Win rate is an important metric, especially when copying traders who actively trade new pairs daily on platforms like Pumpfun or Radium. Here’s what to look for:

• Ideal Win Rate Range: The sweet spot is between 65% and 90%. A lower win rate often indicates inconsistency, while a win rate above 95% could mean something suspicious or very rare.

• Watch for Manipulation: Some traders artificially inflate their win rate by buying a large number of tokens without selling them. Always verify trades to ensure their win rate reflects genuine performance.

Step 2: Check Trade Patterns

• Average Hold Time: If a wallet frequently flips tokens within a minute, it’s unlikely to be profitable long term. I avoid wallets with an average hold time of less than 5 minutes. Slower, more deliberate trading tends to yield better results.

• Recent Trades: Examine their recent trade history. Use tools like Dexscreener to verify buy and sell points, ensuring they aren’t copying others or farming tokens excessively.

Step 3: Use the Right Tools

I rely on a combination of tools for analysis:

1. Cielo, GMGN, and Gatekept Pro (Beta):

   • Check 30-day and overall win rates. A consistently high win rate across timeframes is a positive indicator.

   • Gatekept Pro provides valuable metrics like average hold time and average profit per trade.

2. Dexscreener:

   • Use this to track exactly when and where a wallet bought or sold a token. It’s especially useful for spotting insider wallets or copy traders.

3. WalletX:

   • I also use WalletX for its median win rate calculations. This gives a clearer picture of how long a wallet typically holds a token. For example, if a wallet makes 5 trades with a hold time of 5 days, then follows up with 20 trades holding less than a minute, the average hold time may look long. Median win rate avoids this distortion and provides a more accurate assessment.

Step 4: Watch Out for Red Flags

• Wallet Clustering: Groups of wallets often trade the same tokens. They may generate an initial big win, but later trades could exploit followers by farming those tokens. This comes with experience—knowing which wallets to avoid is critical.

• Fund Transfers: Some wallets frequently move funds to new wallets. If you’ve had success with one wallet, check to see if it has linked wallets. This can help you stay ahead of their activity.

Step 5: Insider Wallets

Insider wallets are rare but highly profitable. However, they often try to remain hidden:

• Misleading Win Rates: Some insiders deliberately lower their win rate (e.g., to 35%) to avoid being noticed.

• Entry Timing: Use Dexscreener to see how early they entered a token. Early entries can signal insider knowledge.

Final Thoughts

Trading is a competitive, player-versus-player (PvP) environment where every edge matters. My approach emphasizes adaptability and continuous learning:

• Experiment with strategies that match your risk level and trading size.

• Focus on tools and techniques that give you an advantage.

• Stick with what works for you, and don’t be afraid to adjust as you gain more experience.

Remember, I’m still learning too, but by staying curious and disciplined, you can refine your approach to copy trading and improve your results over time.