How to Spot a Great Wallet for Copy-Trading - Vic

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1. Starting With the Basics: The Numbers That Matter

Win Rate

Win rate is often the first thing traders check when evaluating a wallet, but focusing solely on this number can make you miss great opportunities.

  • Ideal Win Rate: Aim for 60-65%. Lower rates can indicate gambling behavior, while higher than 90% might signal manipulation.

  • Win:Loss Ratio: Profits matter more than the win rate itself. A wallet with a 50% win rate but high returns is more valuable than one with a 90% win rate and small profits.

  • Example: If a wallet wins 5 trades with a total gain of $10,000 and loses 5 trades with a total loss of $1,000, its win rate is only 50%, but the net profit is $9,000.

ROI (Return on Investment)

ROI tells you how much money a wallet makes in proportion to its investment. It's a crucial metric, but understanding how it’s generated is just as important as the percentage itself.

  • How ROI Works: ROI is calculated by comparing profits to the initial investment. A 100% ROI means a wallet doubled its initial investment (e.g., $1,000 turns into $2,000).

  • Good ROI Ranges:

    • 30-50% ROI: Suitable for conservative traders who prioritize stability.

    • 100-200% ROI: Higher risk traders may target these levels for greater returns.

  • The Problem with Extremely Low ROI:

    • Wallets with less than 20-30% ROI may not be worth copying. After factoring in Solana’s transaction fees, speed tip and OdinBot’s 1% trading fee, these traders may barely break even, or even lose money if trading with smaller trade sizes.

  • Be Cautious of Unrealistic ROI:

    • Wallets showing over 500%+ ROI in a short period should be approached with skepticism.

    • Many of these high ROI wallets rely on highly speculative tokens or engage in strategies that are difficult for copy traders to replicate.

  • Matching ROI to Your Strategy:

    • Don't just chase the highest ROI. Instead, find a wallet that aligns with your risk tolerance, trading style, and sol balance.

2. Quality of the Traded Tokens

A great ROI and win rate do not mean much if a wallet is trading scam tokens. Here’s how to spot a quality wallet:

  • Avoid Red Flags: If a wallet frequently trades tokens marked with “red danger sign,” it is likely involved in quick pump and dump schemes.

  • Look for Stability: The best wallets trade established tokens with real market activity and liquidity.

  • Evaluate Trading Patterns:

    • Check if the wallet trades during the bonding curve or shortly after tokens hit Raydium. This indicates strategic entry points rather than random gambling.

    • Observe if the wallet trades tokens that maintain activity days after purchase, instead of those that collapse immediately after a pump.

Example Comparison:

  • Bad Wallet (5rEYJuDHGp4BWaTcn1RrSWg5XZCs3LRMc9Edezsck1hN)

    • Trades mostly low liquidity tokens that show huge price spikes followed by rapid crashes.

    • Often exits before others can, leaving copy-traders stuck with losses.

    • Contains multiple trades flagged with the red danger sign.

  • Good Wallet (CFqDUKDfAN9wadUwUBrb3LCEy8fjx7zqJnYXMd7P6JMv)

    • Trades tokens that maintain healthy market activity even after their initial spike.

    • Shows consistent liquidity in trades, ensuring positions can be entered and exited efficiently.

    • Avoids assets prone to rug pulls and price manipulation.

What This Means for Copy-Trading

  • Copy-traders should prioritize wallets that trade tokens with organic price movement and enough liquidity to prevent instant crashes.

  • Avoid wallets focusing on short lived trends that make profitable copy-trading impossible.

3. Holding Duration

Holding time is crucial in copy trading because if a wallet buys and sells within seconds, you likely will not be able to copy it effectively.

  • High-Risk Wallets: Avoid wallets holding for less than 2-3 minutes, as these are nearly impossible to follow.

  • Better to Copy: Look for wallets that hold tokens for hours or even days, giving copy traders time to react.

  • Example:

    • Bad Wallet (5rEYJuDHGp4BWaTcn1RrSWg5XZCs3LRMc9Edezsck1hN): Holds tokens for mere seconds.

  • Good Wallet (8FGQCoSqZkiYWPgvShkg8HxEsxvxC5v5nqxTaS9rkVgJ): Holds trades for hours or days, making them easier to copy.

4. Trading Frequency

The trading frequency of a wallet plays a crucial role in copy-trading success. A wallet's activity level can impact both costs and overall profitability.

  • High Frequency Traders:

    • Execute 20+ trades daily.

    • May produce strong returns but incur higher transaction fees.

    • Require larger capital balance to sustain consistent profits.

  • Moderate Frequency Traders:

    • Execute a few well timed trades per day or week.

    • Allow for better capital management and lower fees.

    • Often maintain a stable strategy with reduced risk exposure.

  • Low Frequency Traders:

    • Execute fewer than 5 trades per week.

    • Focus on long term positioning and strategic entries.

    • Best suited for copy traders looking to minimize transaction costs.

Choosing the Right Frequency

  • High frequency traders are best suited for advanced copy-traders with higher capital.

  • Moderate frequency traders provide a balance between trade volume and risk.

  • Low frequency traders are ideal for those seeking minimal fees and longer term stability.

5. Is the Wallet Already Being Heavily Copied?

If many traders are already copying a wallet, your entry price will likely be worse than theirs. A wallet that is too popular can cause copy-traders to enter trades at inflated prices and exit with losses.

  • Signs of a Heavily Copied Wallet:

    • Sudden Price Spikes: Watch for 10-20% price increases seconds after the wallet buys.

    • Sharp Pullbacks: If a token’s price surges and then rapidly crashes, it suggests heavy copy trading pressure.

    • Unusual Buy Patterns: If a token’s price consistently jumps after the same wallet trades, it may be attracting too many followers.

For more thorough explanations visit:

Final Thoughts: What Makes a Wallet Worth Copying?

  1. Win Rate & ROI: Aim for a 60-65% win rate and at least 30-50% ROI.

  2. Token Quality: Avoid wallets trading low liquidity scam tokens.

  3. Holding Duration: Copy wallets that hold tokens for several hours or days.

  4. Trading Frequency: Ensure the wallet’s trading style matches your capital.

  5. Copytrading Status: Avoid heavily copy-traded wallets with extreme price spikes.

For detailed explanations with examples, visit our official blog:

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